Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing25/32, 221 YDS, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing14 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving10 REC, 110 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing21/28, 159 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing19 CAR, 79 YDS
- Jauan JenningsReceiving10 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:12Geno Smith 13 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)20–17
- Q49:33Jauan Jennings 3 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)13–17
- Q33:25Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)13–10
- Q39:26Jake Moody 33 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q28:41Jason Myers 57 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q10:10Brock Purdy 10 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)3–7
- Q18:13Jason Myers 52 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:10Brock Purdy 10 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)SEA 3 – 7 SF · SF 60% → 78% +18SF 60% → 78%+18 pts
- Q39:26Jake Moody 33 Yd Field GoalSEA 6 – 10 SF · SF 67% → 77% +10SF 67% → 77%+10 pts
- Q33:25Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 13 – 10 SF · SEA 22% → 51% +29SEA 22% → 51%+29 pts
- Q49:33Jauan Jennings 3 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SEA 13 – 17 SF · SF 40% → 80% +40SF 40% → 80%+40 pts
- Q40:12Geno Smith 13 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 20 – 17 SF · SEA <1% → >99% +100SEA <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- SF -6.5
- ML SEA +225 / SF -275
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -7.5
- SF 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- SF: Elo 75.3%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -243
- SEA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 21.0 – 27.5 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +3 | SEA: Geno Smith · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +194 Elo | SF 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 77.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 75.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 70.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 25.98th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.6 | Points allowed | 22.416th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.2 | Margin | +3.411th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.66 | Yards per play | 6.552nd of 32 |
| 20th of 325.54 | Yards allowed per play | 5.118th of 32 |
| 8th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–6 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–3 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.