Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing20/32, 246 YDS, 2 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing15 CAR, 39 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving6 REC, 81 YDS
Titans- Will LevisPassing17/31, 295 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Will LevisRushing7 CAR, 18 YDS
- Nick Westbrook-IkhineReceiving2 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q414:08Nick Folk 43 Yd Field Goal23–13
- Q33:15Cam Akers 3 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)23–10
- Q37:00Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 98 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)16–10
- Q21:41John Parker Romo 40 Yd Field Goal16–3
- Q27:40Sam Darnold 1 Yd Rush (John Parker Romo PAT Failed)13–3
- Q13:16Jordan Addison 47 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)7–3
- Q14:39Nick Folk 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:39Nick Folk 30 Yd Field GoalMIN 0 – 3 TEN · TEN 33% → 41% +8TEN 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q13:16Jordan Addison 47 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)MIN 7 – 3 TEN · MIN 59% → 76% +17MIN 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q27:40Sam Darnold 1 Yd Rush (John Parker Romo PAT Failed)MIN 13 – 3 TEN · MIN 76% → 88% +12MIN 76% → 88%+12 pts
- Q37:00Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 98 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)MIN 16 – 10 TEN · TEN 5% → 18% +13TEN 5% → 18%+13 pts
- Q33:15Cam Akers 3 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)MIN 23 – 10 TEN · MIN 83% → 96% +13MIN 83% → 96%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -5.5
- ML MIN -240 / TEN +200
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8
- MIN 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 75.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -218
- TEN +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 23.0 – 17.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1354 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −19 | +6 | MIN: Sam Darnold, usually Kirk Cousins · TEN: Will Levis (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +198 Elo | MIN 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 74.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 68.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.6 | Points scored | 17.427th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.4 | Points allowed | 26.729th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+7.1 | Margin | −9.231st of 32 |
| 13th of 325.62 | Yards per play | 4.8127th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.02 | Yards allowed per play | 4.823rd of 32 |
| 6th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 1–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 1–7 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.