Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing22/34, 330 YDS, 2 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing22 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- Jordan AddisonReceiving8 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing32/47, 340 YDS, 2 TD
- Caleb WilliamsRushing6 CAR, 33 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving7 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT2:10John Parker Romo 29 Yd Field Goal30–27
- Q40:00Cairo Santos 48 Yd Field Goal27–27
- Q40:22Keenan Allen 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Caleb Williams Pass to DJ Moore for Two-Point Conversion)27–24
- Q41:56John Parker Romo 26 Yd Field Goal27–16
- Q47:22DJ Moore 10 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–16
- Q31:22Aaron Jones 2 Yd Rush (John Parker Romo Kick)24–10
- Q312:40John Parker Romo 40 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q20:00Cairo Santos 49 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q26:29Jalen Nailor 5 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)14–7
- Q214:54Jordan Addison 2 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)7–7
- Q10:53Roschon Johnson 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:53Roschon Johnson 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)MIN 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 41% → 61% +20CHI 41% → 61%+20 pts
- Q214:54Jordan Addison 2 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)MIN 7 – 7 CHI · MIN 38% → 59% +20MIN 38% → 59%+20 pts
- Q26:29Jalen Nailor 5 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)MIN 14 – 7 CHI · MIN 58% → 78% +20MIN 58% → 78%+20 pts
- Q40:00Cairo Santos 48 Yd Field GoalMIN 27 – 27 CHI · CHI 0% → 46% +46CHI 0% → 46%+46 pts
- OT2:10John Parker Romo 29 Yd Field GoalMIN 30 – 27 CHI · MIN 52% → 85% +33MIN 52% → 85%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -155 / CHI +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6.5
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 71.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- CHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 21.0 – 18.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1626 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −11 | −24 | MIN: Sam Darnold · CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +157 Elo | MIN 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 69.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.4 | Points scored | 19.422nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3217.0 | Points allowed | 18.77th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+7.4 | Margin | +0.716th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.53 | Yards per play | 4.4932nd of 32 |
| 6th of 325.05 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6024th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.