Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing13/17, 261 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing18 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving4 REC, 150 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing23/31, 231 YDS
- D'Andre SwiftRushing14 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- Rome OdunzeReceiving6 REC, 65 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:59Jordan Love 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)20–19
- Q30:31D'Andre Swift 39 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–19
- Q36:34Josh Jacobs 7 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)14–13
- Q310:17Cairo Santos 27 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q20:07Roschon Johnson 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)7–10
- Q17:49Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q111:15Jayden Reed 15 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:15Jayden Reed 15 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 7 – 0 CHI · GB 70% → 84% +14GB 70% → 84%+14 pts
- Q20:07Roschon Johnson 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)GB 7 – 10 CHI · CHI 23% → 45% +22CHI 23% → 45%+22 pts
- Q36:34Josh Jacobs 7 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 14 – 13 CHI · GB 38% → 67% +29GB 38% → 67%+29 pts
- Q30:31D'Andre Swift 39 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)GB 14 – 19 CHI · CHI 34% → 63% +29CHI 34% → 63%+29 pts
- Q42:59Jordan Love 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)GB 20 – 19 CHI · GB 10% → 66% +56GB 10% → 66%+56 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- GB -6.5
- ML GB -280 / CHI +230
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -6
- GB 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- GB: Elo 70.6%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- GB -243
- CHI +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 24.0 – 17.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1600 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | −31 | GB: Jordan Love · CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +152 Elo | GB 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 67.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 70.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3225.6 | Points scored | 19.424th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.6 | Points allowed | 18.67th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+4.0 | Margin | +0.915th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.16 | Yards per play | 4.3431st of 32 |
| 13th of 325.29 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3715th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.