Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing11/17, 112 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing22 CAR, 125 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving3 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Desmond RidderPassing23/39, 208 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Desmond RidderRushing5 CAR, 28 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving5 REC, 59 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:54Ameer Abdullah 5 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Daniel Carlson PAT blocked)15–9
- Q413:26Younghoe Koo 48 Yd Field Goal15–3
- Q39:25Younghoe Koo 40 Yd Field Goal12–3
- Q25:35Team Safety9–3
- Q211:44Daniel Carlson 52 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q10:14Drake London 30 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:14Drake London 30 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 7 – 0 LV · ATL 68% → 84% +15ATL 68% → 84%+15 pts
- Q211:44Daniel Carlson 52 Yd Field GoalATL 7 – 3 LV · LV 16% → 22% +6LV 16% → 22%+6 pts
- Q25:35Team SafetyATL 9 – 3 LV · ATL 77% → 82% +5ATL 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q39:25Younghoe Koo 40 Yd Field GoalATL 12 – 3 LV · ATL 83% → 89% +6ATL 83% → 89%+6 pts
- Q413:26Younghoe Koo 48 Yd Field GoalATL 15 – 3 LV · ATL 93% → 97% +4ATL 93% → 97%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -5.5
- ML ATL -290 / LV +240
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.8%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -245
- LV +245 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 24.5 – 19.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1287 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +31 | +13 | ATL: Kirk Cousins · LV: Desmond Ridder, usually Aidan O'Connell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +91 Elo | ATL 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 71.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 18.227th of 32 |
| 26th of 3225.6 | Points allowed | 27.831st of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.2 | Margin | −9.631st of 32 |
| 9th of 325.83 | Yards per play | 4.8628th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.65 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3714th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 18th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 1–425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 0–4 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.