Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing25/42, 273 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaleel McLaughlinRushing7 CAR, 44 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving8 REC, 97 YDS, 2 TD
Raiders- Gardner Minshew IIPassing25/42, 230 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Sincere McCormickRushing5 CAR, 33 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving10 REC, 121 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Wil Lutz 33 Yd Field Goal29–19
- Q43:38Daniel Carlson 22 Yd Field Goal26–19
- Q45:30Courtland Sutton 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)26–16
- Q48:59Daniel Carlson 53 Yd Field Goal19–16
- Q412:05Wil Lutz 45 Yd Field Goal19–13
- Q310:49Courtland Sutton 18 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)16–13
- Q20:00Daniel Carlson 34 Yd Field Goal9–13
- Q20:53Wil Lutz 54 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q23:48Daniel Carlson 34 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q29:21Wil Lutz 53 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q213:36Ameer Abdullah 6 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)3–7
- Q12:47Wil Lutz 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:36Ameer Abdullah 6 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)DEN 3 – 7 LV · LV 26% → 45% +19LV 26% → 45%+19 pts
- Q310:49Courtland Sutton 18 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 16 – 13 LV · DEN 47% → 73% +25DEN 47% → 73%+25 pts
- Q412:05Wil Lutz 45 Yd Field GoalDEN 19 – 13 LV · DEN 74% → 85% +12DEN 74% → 85%+12 pts
- Q48:59Daniel Carlson 53 Yd Field GoalDEN 19 – 16 LV · LV 12% → 25% +13LV 12% → 25%+13 pts
- Q45:30Courtland Sutton 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 26 – 16 LV · DEN 78% → 99% +21DEN 78% → 99%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -5.5
- ML DEN -240 / LV +200
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7.5
- DEN 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 74.0%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- DEN -217
- LV +217 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 23.5 – 18.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1316 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −14 | +32 | DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson · LV: Gardner Minshew II, usually Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +182 Elo | DEN 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 72.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 68.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 18.726th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3216.6 | Points allowed | 28.529th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+4.7 | Margin | −9.830th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.11 | Yards per play | 4.6729th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.65 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3012th of 32 |
| 13th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 1–325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–2 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–2 LV in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.