Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Gardner Minshew IIPassing30/43, 282 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jakobi MeyersRushing1 CAR, 20 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving13 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing28/36, 288 YDS, 3 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing17 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Jonnu SmithReceiving6 REC, 101 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Jason Sanders 46 Yd Field Goal19–34
- Q43:19Jonnu Smith 57 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)19–31
- Q44:23Ameer Abdullah 10 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)19–24
- Q410:37De'Von Achane 2 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)12–24
- Q31:21Brock Bowers 23 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)12–17
- Q34:13Tyreek Hill 8 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)6–17
- Q20:45Daniel Carlson 22 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q26:46Jason Sanders 31 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q10:08Daniel Carlson 27 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q16:47Jonnu Smith 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:47Jonnu Smith 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)LV 0 – 7 MIA · MIA 76% → 88% +12MIA 76% → 88%+12 pts
- Q34:13Tyreek Hill 8 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)LV 6 – 17 MIA · MIA 81% → 95% +14MIA 81% → 95%+14 pts
- Q31:21Brock Bowers 23 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)LV 12 – 17 MIA · LV 4% → 16% +12LV 4% → 16%+12 pts
- Q410:37De'Von Achane 2 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)LV 12 – 24 MIA · MIA 86% → 98% +13MIA 86% → 98%+13 pts
- Q44:23Ameer Abdullah 10 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 19 – 24 MIA · LV <1% → 9% +8LV <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML LV +340 / MIA -450
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -6.5
- MIA 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 72.1%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -351
- LV +351 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 17.5 – 26.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1334 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +32 | +20 | LV: Gardner Minshew II, usually Jimmy Garoppolo · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +165 Elo | MIA 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 72.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 77.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3218.7 | Points scored | 16.330th of 32 |
| 30th of 3227.9 | Points allowed | 22.417th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.2 | Margin | −6.125th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.60 | Yards per play | 4.9823rd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.27 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2712th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.