Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing11/19, 104 YDS, 1 INT
- Sincere McCormickRushing15 CAR, 78 YDS
- Michael MayerReceiving7 REC, 68 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing18/29, 295 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing17 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- Cade OttonReceiving3 REC, 70 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Jalen McMillan 29 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)13–28
- Q43:05Daniel Carlson 27 Yd Field Goal13–21
- Q48:47Rachaad White 3 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–21
- Q24:28Daniel Carlson 25 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q29:21Aidan O'Connell 1 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–14
- Q13:52Rachaad White 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–14
- Q18:07Jalen McMillan 15 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:07Jalen McMillan 15 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)LV 0 – 7 TB · TB 72% → 85% +13TB 72% → 85%+13 pts
- Q13:52Rachaad White 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)LV 0 – 14 TB · TB 85% → 94% +8TB 85% → 94%+8 pts
- Q29:21Aidan O'Connell 1 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 14 TB · LV 6% → 15% +9LV 6% → 15%+9 pts
- Q24:28Daniel Carlson 25 Yd Field GoalLV 10 – 14 TB · LV 15% → 21% +6LV 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q48:47Rachaad White 3 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)LV 10 – 21 TB · TB 81% → 98% +16TB 81% → 98%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- TB -6.5
- ML LV +255 / TB -310
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -9
- TB 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- TB: Elo 78.8%, market 72.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -275
- LV +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 20.5 – 27.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1300 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +13 | — | LV: Aidan O'Connell · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +228 Elo | TB 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 77.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 73.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.6 | Points scored | 27.95th of 32 |
| 28th of 3227.8 | Points allowed | 24.725th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−9.2 | Margin | +3.312th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.89 | Yards per play | 5.945th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.24 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7226th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–7 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.