Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing21/33, 235 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing25 CAR, 152 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving8 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing26/46, 298 YDS, 1 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing12 CAR, 43 YDS
- Adam ThielenReceiving8 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT2:50Chase McLaughlin 30 Yd Field Goal26–23
- Q40:00Chase McLaughlin 51 Yd Field Goal23–23
- Q40:30Adam Thielen 25 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)20–23
- Q43:05Chase McLaughlin 26 Yd Field Goal20–16
- Q48:53Bucky Irving 6 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–16
- Q30:19Eddy Pineiro 22 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q20:05Eddy Pineiro 27 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q23:39Chase McLaughlin 27 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q27:45Bryce Young 10 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–10
- Q10:48Eddy Pineiro 47 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q14:29Mike Evans 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:53Bucky Irving 6 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 17 – 16 CAR · TB 22% → 65% +43TB 22% → 65%+43 pts
- Q43:05Chase McLaughlin 26 Yd Field GoalTB 20 – 16 CAR · TB 66% → 89% +23TB 66% → 89%+23 pts
- Q40:30Adam Thielen 25 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)TB 20 – 23 CAR · CAR <1% → 98% +98CAR <1% → 98%+98 pts
- Q40:00Chase McLaughlin 51 Yd Field GoalTB 23 – 23 CAR · TB 0% → 59% +59TB 0% → 59%+59 pts
- OT2:50Chase McLaughlin 30 Yd Field GoalTB 26 – 23 CAR · TB 55% → 84% +29TB 55% → 84%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- TB -6.5
- ML TB -290 / CAR +240
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -6.5
- TB 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- TB: Elo 72.5%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -254
- CAR +254 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 26.5 – 20.0 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1293 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −1 | TB: Baker Mayfield · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +169 Elo | TB 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 71.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 71.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.1 | Points scored | 17.629th of 32 |
| 25th of 3224.8 | Points allowed | 30.932nd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+3.3 | Margin | −13.332nd of 32 |
| 5th of 325.95 | Yards per play | 4.9924th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.75 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7929th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 11th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 1–425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–4 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | — |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–0 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.