Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing23/35, 340 YDS, 2 TD
- Sincere McCormickRushing12 CAR, 64 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving10 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing26/46, 306 YDS, 1 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing7 CAR, 44 YDS
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving4 REC, 90 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:53Matthew Wright 32 Yd Field Goal17–19
- Q414:52Tre Tucker 58 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)17–16
- Q31:40Brock Bowers 33 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)10–16
- Q33:11Matthew Wright 35 Yd Field Goal3–16
- Q38:40Matthew Wright 42 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q22:14Justin Watson 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Matthew Wright Kick)3–10
- Q211:03Daniel Carlson 27 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:06Matthew Wright 25 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:03Daniel Carlson 27 Yd Field GoalLV 3 – 3 KC · LV 13% → 18% +5LV 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q22:14Justin Watson 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Matthew Wright Kick)LV 3 – 10 KC · KC 79% → 92% +13KC 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q31:40Brock Bowers 33 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 10 – 16 KC · LV 2% → 10% +8LV 2% → 10%+8 pts
- Q414:52Tre Tucker 58 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 17 – 16 KC · LV 10% → 34% +24LV 10% → 34%+24 pts
- Q49:53Matthew Wright 32 Yd Field GoalLV 17 – 19 KC · KC 61% → 77% +16KC 61% → 77%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- KC -13.5
- ML LV +550 / KC -900
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -17.5
- KC 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- KC: Elo 92.6%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -620
- LV +620 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 14.0 – 27.5 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1302 | 1706 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +3 | LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Gardner Minshew II · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +440 Elo | KC 92.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 86.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 91.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 86.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3218.7 | Points scored | 24.510th of 32 |
| 30th of 3228.5 | Points allowed | 19.88th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−9.8 | Margin | +4.711th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.71 | Yards per play | 5.2119th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.27 | Yards allowed per play | 5.158th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 32 |
| 30th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | — |
| Overs–unders | 8–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 1–2 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.