Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing23/33, 196 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing14 CAR, 60 YDS
- Xavier WorthyReceiving4 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing27/40, 262 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Josh AllenRushing12 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- Khalil ShakirReceiving8 REC, 70 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:17Josh Allen 26 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)21–30
- Q47:53Noah Gray 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Spencer Shrader Kick)21–23
- Q412:51Curtis Samuel 12 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)14–23
- Q20:00Tyler Bass 33 Yd Field Goal14–16
- Q22:51Noah Gray 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Spencer Shrader Kick)14–13
- Q210:08James Cook 6 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)7–13
- Q214:53Xavier Worthy 10 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–6
- Q110:00James Cook 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass PAT Failed)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:08James Cook 6 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)KC 7 – 13 BUF · BUF 46% → 66% +21BUF 46% → 66%+21 pts
- Q22:51Noah Gray 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Spencer Shrader Kick)KC 14 – 13 BUF · KC 32% → 55% +23KC 32% → 55%+23 pts
- Q412:51Curtis Samuel 12 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)KC 14 – 23 BUF · BUF 60% → 89% +29BUF 60% → 89%+29 pts
- Q47:53Noah Gray 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Spencer Shrader Kick)KC 21 – 23 BUF · KC 6% → 37% +31KC 6% → 37%+31 pts
- Q42:17Josh Allen 26 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)KC 21 – 30 BUF · BUF 74% → >99% +26BUF 74% → >99%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -1
- KC 54%
- Fair odds
- KC -107
- BUF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 22.2 – 21.7 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1735 | 1678 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | — | KC: Patrick Mahomes · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +24 Elo | KC 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 29.03rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3217.9 | Points allowed | 19.39th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.4 | Margin | +9.72nd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.17 | Yards per play | 5.819th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.08 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4416th of 32 |
| 1st of 324–0 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | — | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 1–1 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.