Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing22/37, 280 YDS, 2 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing19 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- Mack HollinsReceiving4 REC, 86 YDS
Colts- Joe FlaccoPassing26/35, 272 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing21 CAR, 114 YDS
- Alec PierceReceiving4 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:02Alec Pierce 10 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)30–20
- Q43:04James Cook 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)30–13
- Q410:58Tyler Bass 28 Yd Field Goal23–13
- Q20:00Tyler Bass 47 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q22:14Josh Allen 13 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)17–13
- Q26:32Matt Gay 23 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q29:22Tyler Goodson 2 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)10–10
- Q13:31Matt Gay 27 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q15:33Tyler Bass 29 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q112:14Taron Johnson 23 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Bass Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:14Taron Johnson 23 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 7 – 0 IND · BUF 67% → 81% +14BUF 67% → 81%+14 pts
- Q29:22Tyler Goodson 2 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)BUF 10 – 10 IND · IND 18% → 36% +18IND 18% → 36%+18 pts
- Q26:32Matt Gay 23 Yd Field GoalBUF 10 – 13 IND · IND 37% → 46% +9IND 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q22:14Josh Allen 13 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 17 – 13 IND · BUF 53% → 75% +22BUF 53% → 75%+22 pts
- Q20:00Tyler Bass 47 Yd Field GoalBUF 20 – 13 IND · BUF 75% → 82% +8BUF 75% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -4.5
- ML BUF -225 / IND +190
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -6
- BUF 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- BUF: Elo 70.4%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- BUF -203
- IND +203 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 25.5 – 21.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1661 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +14 | BUF: Josh Allen · IND: Joe Flacco, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +151 Elo | BUF 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 69.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 67.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.9 | Points scored | 20.922nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 21.412th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+9.7 | Margin | −0.618th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.79 | Yards per play | 5.4315th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.39 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6221st of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.