Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing19/34, 191 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing26 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- Adam ThielenReceiving9 REC, 102 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing14/21, 108 YDS, 2 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing20 CAR, 124 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving4 REC, 43 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q413:45Grant Calcaterra 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Saquon Barkley Run for Two-Point Conversion)16–22
- Q32:49Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro PAT Failed)16–14
- Q20:14DeVonta Smith 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)10–14
- Q24:00Tommy Tremble 3 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–7
- Q211:48Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)3–7
- Q11:09Eddy Pineiro 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:48Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)CAR 3 – 7 PHI · PHI 76% → 89% +13PHI 76% → 89%+13 pts
- Q24:00Tommy Tremble 3 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 10 – 7 PHI · CAR 12% → 28% +16CAR 12% → 28%+16 pts
- Q20:14DeVonta Smith 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)CAR 10 – 14 PHI · PHI 70% → 88% +17PHI 70% → 88%+17 pts
- Q32:49Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro PAT Failed)CAR 16 – 14 PHI · CAR 14% → 35% +21CAR 14% → 35%+21 pts
- Q413:45Grant Calcaterra 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Saquon Barkley Run for Two-Point Conversion)CAR 16 – 22 PHI · PHI 61% → 91% +30PHI 61% → 91%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -13.5
- ML CAR +600 / PHI -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -17
- PHI 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 92.2%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -666
- CAR +666 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 15.5 – 29.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1284 | 1677 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +1 | — | CAR: Bryce Young · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +428 Elo | PHI 92.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 87.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 91.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 87.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3218.1 | Points scored | 26.78th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3230.5 | Points allowed | 18.24th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−12.4 | Margin | +8.53rd of 32 |
| 24th of 325.03 | Yards per play | 5.809th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.79 | Yards allowed per play | 4.771st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 32 |
| 26th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.