Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing19/35, 223 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing17 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving7 REC, 106 YDS
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing24/36, 227 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Jayden DanielsRushing16 CAR, 127 YDS
- Olamide ZaccheausReceiving8 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT2:42Zach Ertz 2 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels24–30
- Q41:19Kyle Pitts 13 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Riley Patterson Kick)24–24
- Q44:32Zane Gonzalez 31 Yd Field Goal17–24
- Q413:03Chris Rodriguez Jr. 2 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)17–21
- Q37:13Zach Ertz 10 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)17–14
- Q20:02Riley Patterson 39 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q24:24Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)14–7
- Q15:10Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)7–7
- Q19:33Olamide Zaccheaus 7 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:24Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)ATL 14 – 7 WSH · ATL 39% → 62% +23ATL 39% → 62%+23 pts
- Q37:13Zach Ertz 10 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)ATL 17 – 14 WSH · WSH 21% → 46% +26WSH 21% → 46%+26 pts
- Q413:03Chris Rodriguez Jr. 2 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)ATL 17 – 21 WSH · WSH 41% → 76% +35WSH 41% → 76%+35 pts
- Q41:19Kyle Pitts 13 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Riley Patterson Kick)ATL 24 – 24 WSH · ATL <1% → 48% +48ATL <1% → 48%+48 pts
- OT2:42Zach Ertz 2 Yd pass from Jayden DanielsATL 24 – 30 WSH · WSH 53% → 97% +44WSH 53% → 97%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -3.5
- ML ATL +160 / WSH -190
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -8.5
- WSH 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 77.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -179
- ATL +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 21.5 – 25.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −74 | +38 | ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins · WSH: Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +211 Elo | WSH 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 75.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 64.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.8 | Points scored | 28.85th of 32 |
| 20th of 3223.3 | Points allowed | 23.219th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.5 | Margin | +5.69th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.70 | Yards per play | 5.789th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.44 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4215th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 14th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 0–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.