Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing25/31, 226 YDS, 2 TD
- Jayden DanielsRushing11 CAR, 66 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving7 REC, 73 YDS, 2 TD
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing10/21, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- Kendre MillerRushing9 CAR, 46 YDS
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingReceiving2 REC, 64 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Foster Moreau 1 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–19
- Q46:57Blake Grupe 51 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q411:09Blake Grupe 41 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q414:56Greg Joseph 41 Yd Field Goal20–7
- Q35:45Alvin Kamara 21 Yd pass from Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Blake Grupe Kick)17–7
- Q38:12Greg Joseph 23 Yd Field Goal17–0
- Q25:38Terry McLaurin 3 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Greg Joseph Kick)14–0
- Q15:28Terry McLaurin 16 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Greg Joseph Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:28Terry McLaurin 16 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Greg Joseph Kick)WSH 7 – 0 NO · WSH 73% → 86% +13WSH 73% → 86%+13 pts
- Q25:38Terry McLaurin 3 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Greg Joseph Kick)WSH 14 – 0 NO · WSH 86% → 95% +9WSH 86% → 95%+9 pts
- Q35:45Alvin Kamara 21 Yd pass from Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Blake Grupe Kick)WSH 17 – 7 NO · NO 1% → 7% +6NO 1% → 7%+6 pts
- Q414:56Greg Joseph 41 Yd Field GoalWSH 20 – 7 NO · WSH 94% → 98% +3WSH 94% → 98%+3 pts
- Q46:57Blake Grupe 51 Yd Field GoalWSH 20 – 13 NO · NO 2% → 6% +4NO 2% → 6%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -7.5
- ML WSH -380 / NO +290
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -5.5
- WSH 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 68.4%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- WSH -301
- NO +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 26.0 – 18.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +33 | −125 | WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell · NO: Jake Haener, usually Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +134 Elo | WSH 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 69.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 75.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.9 | Points scored | 22.316th of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 22.514th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.2 | Margin | −0.216th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.91 | Yards per play | 5.4714th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.52 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9031st of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 17th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–4 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.