Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Will LevisPassing18/37, 212 YDS, 2 TD
- Tony PollardRushing8 CAR, 35 YDS
- Nick Westbrook-IkhineReceiving3 REC, 61 YDS, 2 TD
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing25/30, 206 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving8 REC, 73 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:31Chris Rodriguez Jr. 7 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)19–42
- Q47:07Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 17 Yd pass from Will Levis (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–35
- Q414:15Zach Ertz 4 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)13–35
- Q33:40Nick Folk 44 Yd Field Goal13–28
- Q38:41Nick Folk 41 Yd Field Goal10–28
- Q20:23Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 27 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)7–28
- Q210:59Terry McLaurin 3 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)0–28
- Q10:24Terry McLaurin 16 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)0–21
- Q12:23Jayden Daniels 3 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)0–14
- Q111:58Brian Robinson Jr. 40 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:58Brian Robinson Jr. 40 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)TEN 0 – 7 WSH · WSH 67% → 82% +14WSH 67% → 82%+14 pts
- Q12:23Jayden Daniels 3 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)TEN 0 – 14 WSH · WSH 82% → 92% +10WSH 82% → 92%+10 pts
- Q10:24Terry McLaurin 16 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)TEN 0 – 21 WSH · WSH 92% → 97% +5WSH 92% → 97%+5 pts
- Q210:59Terry McLaurin 3 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)TEN 0 – 28 WSH · WSH 98% → >99% +2WSH 98% → >99%+2 pts
- Q33:40Nick Folk 44 Yd Field GoalTEN 13 – 28 WSH · TEN 1% → 3% +1TEN 1% → 3%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -5.5
- ML TEN +200 / WSH -240
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -5
- WSH 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 67.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -211
- TEN +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 20.0 – 25.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | +33 | TEN: Will Levis · WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +126 Elo | WSH 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 68.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 67.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3218.4 | Points scored | 27.85th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.4 | Points allowed | 23.117th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−8.0 | Margin | +4.810th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.93 | Yards per play | 5.907th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.81 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5620th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–8 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.