Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Kenny PickettPassing14/24, 143 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing29 CAR, 150 YDS, 2 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving8 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing24/39, 258 YDS, 5 TD, 2 INT
- Jayden DanielsRushing9 CAR, 81 YDS
- Olamide ZaccheausReceiving5 REC, 70 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:06Jamison Crowder 9 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Jeremy McNichols Run for Two-Point Conversion)33–36
- Q41:58Jake Elliott 40 Yd Field Goal33–28
- Q43:48Jake Elliott 50 Yd Field Goal30–28
- Q49:06Olamide Zaccheaus 49 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)27–28
- Q413:33Olamide Zaccheaus 4 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)27–21
- Q33:11Jake Elliott 40 Yd Field Goal27–14
- Q311:40Jake Elliott 24 Yd Field Goal24–14
- Q26:46Terry McLaurin 32 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)21–14
- Q12:18Saquon Barkley 68 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)21–7
- Q13:12Jamison Crowder 6 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)14–7
- Q17:08A.J. Brown 4 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Jake Elliott Kick)14–0
- Q111:15Saquon Barkley 2 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:15Saquon Barkley 2 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 0 WSH · PHI 66% → 80% +15PHI 66% → 80%+15 pts
- Q49:06Olamide Zaccheaus 49 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)PHI 27 – 28 WSH · WSH 13% → 50% +37WSH 13% → 50%+37 pts
- Q43:48Jake Elliott 50 Yd Field GoalPHI 30 – 28 WSH · PHI 44% → 73% +29PHI 44% → 73%+29 pts
- Q41:58Jake Elliott 40 Yd Field GoalPHI 33 – 28 WSH · PHI 78% → 96% +19PHI 78% → 96%+19 pts
- Q40:06Jamison Crowder 9 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Jeremy McNichols Run for Two-Point Conversion)PHI 33 – 36 WSH · WSH <1% → >99% +100WSH <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML PHI -215 / WSH +180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6
- PHI 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 70.9%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -195
- WSH +195 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 26.0 – 21.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1706 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +37 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · WSH: Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +154 Elo | PHI 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.4 | Points scored | 28.36th of 32 |
| 1st of 3217.6 | Points allowed | 22.516th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+8.7 | Margin | +5.87th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.72 | Yards per play | 5.789th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.70 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4716th of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–0 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–1 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–4 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–0 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.