Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Cooper RushPassing18/29, 214 YDS, 3 TD
- Rico DowdleRushing25 CAR, 149 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving9 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing19/28, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing10 CAR, 32 YDS
- Jalen CokerReceiving4 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:09Brandon Aubrey 41 Yd Field Goal30–14
- Q49:13Bryce Young 6 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)27–14
- Q414:12Brandon Aubrey 45 Yd Field Goal27–7
- Q36:55Jalen Brooks 17 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)24–7
- Q312:46Jalen Tolbert 11 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–7
- Q20:31Jalen Coker 83 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–7
- Q24:05Brandon Aubrey 52 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q29:01CeeDee Lamb 14 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:01CeeDee Lamb 14 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 0 CAR · DAL 45% → 67% +21DAL 45% → 67%+21 pts
- Q24:05Brandon Aubrey 52 Yd Field GoalDAL 10 – 0 CAR · DAL 68% → 77% +8DAL 68% → 77%+8 pts
- Q20:31Jalen Coker 83 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)DAL 10 – 7 CAR · CAR 22% → 44% +22CAR 22% → 44%+22 pts
- Q312:46Jalen Tolbert 11 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 17 – 7 CAR · DAL 57% → 80% +22DAL 57% → 80%+22 pts
- Q36:55Jalen Brooks 17 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 24 – 7 CAR · DAL 83% → 95% +12DAL 83% → 95%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CAR -2.5
- ML DAL +125 / CAR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 40%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3
- CAR 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 39.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -126
- DAL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 19.5 – 22.0 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1281 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −92 | +1 | DAL: Cooper Rush, usually Dak Prescott · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +73 Elo | DAL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 55.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3220.6 | Points scored | 17.928th of 32 |
| 31st of 3228.2 | Points allowed | 29.832nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.5 | Margin | −11.932nd of 32 |
| 25th of 324.98 | Yards per play | 4.9726th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.86 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7528th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 8th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 1–527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–8 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | — |
| Underdog | 2–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.