Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing33/44, 369 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Chase BrownRushing14 CAR, 58 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving14 REC, 177 YDS, 2 TD
Cowboys- Cooper RushPassing16/31, 183 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing18 CAR, 131 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving6 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:01Ja'Marr Chase 40 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)27–20
- Q410:24Cade York 29 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q414:55Brandon Aubrey 47 Yd Field Goal17–20
- Q310:32Brandin Cooks 3 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–17
- Q20:30Cade York 37 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q23:30Chase Brown 19 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)14–10
- Q26:23Brandon Aubrey 35 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q12:45Ja'Marr Chase 5 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)7–7
- Q18:55CeeDee Lamb 11 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:55CeeDee Lamb 11 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)CIN 0 – 7 DAL · DAL 35% → 53% +18DAL 35% → 53%+18 pts
- Q12:45Ja'Marr Chase 5 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)CIN 7 – 7 DAL · CIN 45% → 64% +19CIN 45% → 64%+19 pts
- Q23:30Chase Brown 19 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)CIN 14 – 10 DAL · CIN 52% → 74% +22CIN 52% → 74%+22 pts
- Q310:32Brandin Cooks 3 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)CIN 17 – 17 DAL · DAL 17% → 40% +22DAL 17% → 40%+22 pts
- Q41:01Ja'Marr Chase 40 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)CIN 27 – 20 DAL · CIN 52% → >99% +48CIN 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -4.5
- ML CIN -225 / DAL +190
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -1
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.0%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- CIN -192
- DAL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 27.5 – 23.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +12 | −99 | CIN: Joe Burrow · DAL: Cooper Rush, usually Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +21 Elo | CIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 56.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 65.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.9 | Points scored | 20.721st of 32 |
| 31st of 3228.3 | Points allowed | 28.330th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −7.626th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.77 | Yards per play | 4.9426th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.66 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7928th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 15th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 1–527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.