Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing20/32, 202 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James ConnerRushing15 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- James ConnerReceiving4 REC, 49 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing17/26, 158 YDS, 2 TD
- Chuba HubbardRushing25 CAR, 152 YDS, 2 TD
- Adam ThielenReceiving5 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT3:18Chuba Hubbard 21 Yd Rush30–36
- Q40:00Chad Ryland 58 Yd Field Goal30–30
- Q46:56Kyler Murray 20 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)27–30
- Q412:04David Moore 18 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)20–30
- Q35:00Chad Ryland 30 Yd Field Goal20–23
- Q39:31Eddy Pineiro 29 Yd Field Goal17–23
- Q20:07DeeJay Dallas 1 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)17–20
- Q25:57James Conner 6 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)10–20
- Q27:55Adam Thielen 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)3–20
- Q211:35Bryce Young 23 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro PAT Failed)3–13
- Q214:37Chad Ryland 48 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q14:55Chuba Hubbard 4 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:07DeeJay Dallas 1 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 17 – 20 CAR · ARI 29% → 53% +24ARI 29% → 53%+24 pts
- Q412:04David Moore 18 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)ARI 20 – 30 CAR · CAR 58% → 88% +30CAR 58% → 88%+30 pts
- Q46:56Kyler Murray 20 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 27 – 30 CAR · ARI 5% → 35% +30ARI 5% → 35%+30 pts
- Q40:00Chad Ryland 58 Yd Field GoalARI 30 – 30 CAR · ARI 0% → 58% +58ARI 0% → 58%+58 pts
- OT3:18Chuba Hubbard 21 Yd RushARI 30 – 36 CAR · CAR 46% → 93% +48CAR 46% → 93%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -5.5
- ML ARI -240 / CAR +200
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -7.5
- ARI 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 74.1%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -217
- CAR +217 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 26.5 – 21.0 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1254 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +26 | +1 | ARI: Kyler Murray · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +183 Elo | ARI 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 72.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 68.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 17.628th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221.9 | Points allowed | 29.932nd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −12.232nd of 32 |
| 7th of 325.88 | Yards per play | 4.9527th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.55 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7628th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 1–629th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.