New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing19/23, 202 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing13 CAR, 69 YDS
- Kendrick BourneReceiving3 REC, 44 YDS
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing23/30, 224 YDS
- James ConnerRushing16 CAR, 110 YDS, 2 TD
- Trey McBrideReceiving9 REC, 87 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Drake Maye 5 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)17–30
- Q43:27James Conner 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)10–30
- Q48:14DeMario Douglas 3 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)10–23
- Q410:39James Conner 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)3–23
- Q39:07Chad Ryland 40 Yd Field Goal3–16
- Q20:16Chad Ryland 35 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q22:01Joey Slye 50 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q11:21Jonah Williams fumble recovery in the endzone (Chad Ryland Kick)0–10
- Q17:13Chad Ryland 49 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:13Chad Ryland 49 Yd Field GoalNE 0 – 3 ARI · ARI 69% → 76% +7ARI 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q11:21Jonah Williams fumble recovery in the endzone (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 0 – 10 ARI · ARI 75% → 88% +13ARI 75% → 88%+13 pts
- Q22:01Joey Slye 50 Yd Field GoalNE 3 – 10 ARI · NE 11% → 16% +5NE 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q20:16Chad Ryland 35 Yd Field GoalNE 3 – 13 ARI · ARI 84% → 90% +6ARI 84% → 90%+6 pts
- Q39:07Chad Ryland 40 Yd Field GoalNE 3 – 16 ARI · ARI 91% → 95% +4ARI 91% → 95%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -5.5
- ML NE +225 / ARI -275
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -6
- ARI 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 69.8%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -238
- NE +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 20.5 – 26.0 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1329 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +17 | +26 | NE: Drake Maye, usually Mac Jones · ARI: Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +146 Elo | ARI 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 71.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 70.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3217.0 | Points scored | 21.818th of 32 |
| 21st of 3223.6 | Points allowed | 22.213th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−6.6 | Margin | −0.417th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.72 | Yards per play | 5.867th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5120th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.