Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing24/30, 233 YDS, 1 TD
- Zach CharbonnetRushing22 CAR, 134 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving5 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing25/38, 259 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- James ConnerRushing18 CAR, 90 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving7 REC, 70 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Jason Myers 35 Yd Field Goal30–18
- Q31:05James Conner 2 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Kyler Murray Run for Two-Point Conversion)27–18
- Q35:29Jason Myers 36 Yd Field Goal27–10
- Q22:36Zach Charbonnet 51 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)24–10
- Q210:53Chad Ryland 28 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q10:16Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)17–7
- Q13:25Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)10–7
- Q14:41Jason Myers 20 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q111:53Michael Wilson 41 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:53Michael Wilson 41 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)SEA 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 60% → 76% +16ARI 60% → 76%+16 pts
- Q13:25Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 10 – 7 ARI · SEA 30% → 49% +19SEA 30% → 49%+19 pts
- Q10:16Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 17 – 7 ARI · SEA 49% → 69% +19SEA 49% → 69%+19 pts
- Q22:36Zach Charbonnet 51 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 24 – 10 ARI · SEA 66% → 84% +19SEA 66% → 84%+19 pts
- Q31:05James Conner 2 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Kyler Murray Run for Two-Point Conversion)SEA 27 – 18 ARI · ARI 3% → 17% +14ARI 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -3.5
- ML SEA +150 / ARI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ARI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 49.4%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -153
- SEA +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 21.0 – 24.5 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +28 | SEA: Geno Smith · ARI: Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3222.7 | Points scored | 22.217th of 32 |
| 12th of 3222.1 | Points allowed | 21.611th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.614th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.43 | Yards per play | 5.887th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.36 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4116th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 5th of 324–1 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–0 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.