Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing12/24, 109 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing25 CAR, 96 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving5 REC, 42 YDS
Patriots- Drake MayePassing24/30, 238 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing18 CAR, 73 YDS
- Hunter HenryReceiving7 REC, 75 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:12Alec Pierce 3 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Anthony Richardson Run for Two-Point Conversion)25–24
- Q48:43Antonio Gibson 11 Yd Rush (Drake Maye Pass to Kayshon Boutte for Two-Point Conversion)17–24
- Q37:26Matt Gay 25 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q24:02Austin Hooper 16 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)14–16
- Q28:36Anthony Richardson 3 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)14–9
- Q212:49Joey Slye 54 Yd Field Goal7–9
- Q10:43Joey Slye 31 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q15:02Jonathan Taylor 7 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Matt Gay Kick)7–3
- Q19:12Joey Slye 35 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:02Jonathan Taylor 7 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Matt Gay Kick)IND 7 – 3 NE · IND 47% → 66% +19IND 47% → 66%+19 pts
- Q28:36Anthony Richardson 3 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)IND 14 – 9 NE · IND 49% → 70% +21IND 49% → 70%+21 pts
- Q24:02Austin Hooper 16 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)IND 14 – 16 NE · NE 30% → 52% +22NE 30% → 52%+22 pts
- Q48:43Antonio Gibson 11 Yd Rush (Drake Maye Pass to Kayshon Boutte for Two-Point Conversion)IND 17 – 24 NE · NE 41% → 86% +45NE 41% → 86%+45 pts
- Q40:12Alec Pierce 3 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Anthony Richardson Run for Two-Point Conversion)IND 25 – 24 NE · IND <1% → 86% +86IND <1% → 86%+86 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML IND -140 / NE +120
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2
- IND 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- IND: Elo 56.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- IND -129
- NE +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 22.0 – 19.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1336 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −3 | +18 | IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. · NE: Drake Maye, usually Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +47 Elo | IND 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 56.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 56.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.2 | Points scored | 16.431st of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 23.519th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−2.7 | Margin | −7.125th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.43 | Yards per play | 4.5731st of 32 |
| 21st of 325.58 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5923rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–4 | Road vs home | 1–426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–4 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–0 NE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.