Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing26/36, 269 YDS
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing21 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving5 REC, 64 YDS
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing11/28, 172 YDS
- Anthony Richardson Sr.Rushing10 CAR, 61 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving6 REC, 96 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:21Jake Bates 56 Yd Field Goal24–6
- Q32:19Jahmyr Gibbs 5 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)21–6
- Q23:34David Montgomery 6 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)14–6
- Q28:16Matt Gay 29 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q212:07Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)7–3
- Q18:53Matt Gay 27 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:53Matt Gay 27 Yd Field GoalDET 0 – 3 IND · IND 24% → 30% +7IND 24% → 30%+7 pts
- Q212:07Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)DET 7 – 3 IND · DET 66% → 82% +17DET 66% → 82%+17 pts
- Q28:16Matt Gay 29 Yd Field GoalDET 7 – 6 IND · IND 18% → 25% +7IND 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q23:34David Montgomery 6 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)DET 14 – 6 IND · DET 74% → 89% +15DET 74% → 89%+15 pts
- Q32:19Jahmyr Gibbs 5 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)DET 21 – 6 IND · DET 91% → 98% +7DET 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- DET -6.5
- ML DET -425 / IND +320
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -10
- DET 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- DET: Elo 80.3%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -345
- IND +345 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 28.0 – 21.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1728 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −6 | DET: Jared Goff · IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +245 Elo | DET 80.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 78.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 77.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3233.6 | Points scored | 21.519th of 32 |
| 5th of 3217.7 | Points allowed | 22.719th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+15.9 | Margin | −1.320th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.33 | Yards per play | 5.4316th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.33 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6023rd of 32 |
| 1st of 325–0 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–2 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.