Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing20/30, 272 YDS, 1 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing24 CAR, 57 YDS
- Josh DownsReceiving5 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing22/29, 184 YDS, 2 TD
- Breece HallRushing16 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- Davante AdamsReceiving6 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:46Anthony Richardson 4 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)28–27
- Q42:41Anders Carlson 35 Yd Field Goal22–27
- Q410:11Josh Downs 10 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–24
- Q413:03Kenny Yeboah 11 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson Kick)16–24
- Q32:55Anders Carlson 58 Yd Field Goal16–17
- Q37:41Matt Gay 56 Yd Field Goal16–14
- Q313:22Breece Hall 18 Yd Rush (Anders Carlson Kick)13–14
- Q20:40Breece Hall 29 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson Kick)13–7
- Q26:08Matt Gay 47 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q214:11Anthony Richardson 2 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)10–0
- Q19:07Matt Gay 41 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:40Breece Hall 29 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson Kick)IND 13 – 7 NYJ · NYJ 19% → 39% +20NYJ 19% → 39%+20 pts
- Q313:22Breece Hall 18 Yd Rush (Anders Carlson Kick)IND 13 – 14 NYJ · NYJ 38% → 63% +25NYJ 38% → 63%+25 pts
- Q413:03Kenny Yeboah 11 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson Kick)IND 16 – 24 NYJ · NYJ 62% → 89% +28NYJ 62% → 89%+28 pts
- Q410:11Josh Downs 10 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)IND 22 – 24 NYJ · IND 9% → 33% +24IND 9% → 33%+24 pts
- Q40:46Anthony Richardson 4 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)IND 28 – 27 NYJ · IND <1% → 70% +69IND <1% → 70%+69 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -4.5
- ML IND +170 / NYJ -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -1.5
- NYJ 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- NYJ: Elo 55.7%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -175
- IND +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 19.5 – 24.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −13 | +12 | IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. · NYJ: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +40 Elo | NYJ 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 60.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 63.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3220.8 | Points scored | 17.726th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 21.410th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.5 | Margin | −3.723rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325.48 | Yards per play | 5.0022nd of 32 |
| 25th of 325.65 | Yards allowed per play | 4.874th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.