Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Mac JonesPassing17/29, 138 YDS, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing12 CAR, 27 YDS
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving5 REC, 82 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing24/29, 412 YDS, 4 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing15 CAR, 75 YDS, 2 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving11 REC, 161 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:49Jake Bates 54 Yd Field Goal6–52
- Q413:23Amon-Ra St. Brown 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)6–49
- Q34:16Brock Wright 5 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)6–42
- Q312:55Jameson Williams 64 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)6–35
- Q20:00Cam Little 35 Yd Field Goal6–28
- Q22:46Amon-Ra St. Brown 27 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)3–28
- Q26:39David Montgomery 6 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)3–21
- Q212:26Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)3–14
- Q14:59David Montgomery 2 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)3–7
- Q19:36Cam Little 59 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:36Cam Little 59 Yd Field GoalJAX 3 – 0 DET · JAX 16% → 21% +5JAX 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q14:59David Montgomery 2 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)JAX 3 – 7 DET · DET 77% → 89% +12DET 77% → 89%+12 pts
- Q212:26Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)JAX 3 – 14 DET · DET 88% → 96% +8DET 88% → 96%+8 pts
- Q26:39David Montgomery 6 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)JAX 3 – 21 DET · DET 96% → 99% +3DET 96% → 99%+3 pts
- Q22:46Amon-Ra St. Brown 27 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)JAX 3 – 28 DET · DET 99% → >99% +1DET 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- DET -14.5
- ML JAX +500 / DET -800
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -18
- DET 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.0 pts
- DET: Elo 93.2%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -573
- JAX +573 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 16.5 – 31.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1723 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −96 | — | JAX: Mac Jones, usually Trevor Lawrence · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +456 Elo | DET 93.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 88.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 92.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 85.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3220.2 | Points scored | 31.62nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.4 | Points allowed | 19.08th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−6.2 | Margin | +12.61st of 32 |
| 15th of 325.44 | Yards per play | 6.034th of 32 |
| 31st of 325.88 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4818th of 32 |
| 31st of 320–4 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.