New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing22/37, 222 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Antonio GibsonRushing6 CAR, 31 YDS
- DeMario DouglasReceiving5 REC, 62 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing29/40, 317 YDS, 4 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing10 CAR, 32 YDS
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving8 REC, 144 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:33Jason Sanders 51 Yd Field Goal15–34
- Q410:10Christian Gonzalez 63 Yd Fumble Return (Drake Maye Pass to Rhamondre Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion)15–31
- Q413:43Austin Hooper 38 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)7–31
- Q31:37Jaylen Waddle 23 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)0–31
- Q20:02Jason Sanders 21 Yd Field Goal0–24
- Q21:50De'Von Achane 11 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)0–21
- Q27:50De'Von Achane 9 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)0–14
- Q214:10Jonnu Smith 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:10Jonnu Smith 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)NE 0 – 7 MIA · MIA 75% → 88% +13MIA 75% → 88%+13 pts
- Q27:50De'Von Achane 9 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)NE 0 – 14 MIA · MIA 88% → 96% +8MIA 88% → 96%+8 pts
- Q21:50De'Von Achane 11 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)NE 0 – 21 MIA · MIA 96% → >99% +3MIA 96% → >99%+3 pts
- Q20:02Jason Sanders 21 Yd Field GoalNE 0 – 24 MIA · MIA >99% → >99% +0MIA >99% → >99%+0 pts
- Q410:10Christian Gonzalez 63 Yd Fumble Return (Drake Maye Pass to Rhamondre Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion)NE 15 – 31 MIA · NE <1% → <1% +0NE <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -7.5
- ML NE +340 / MIA -450
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -7
- MIA 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 73.3%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -353
- NE +353 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 19.0 – 26.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1355 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +19 | +20 | NE: Drake Maye, usually Mac Jones · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +175 Elo | MIA 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 73.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 77.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3216.5 | Points scored | 18.127th of 32 |
| 18th of 3222.5 | Points allowed | 22.115th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−6.0 | Margin | −4.024th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.60 | Yards per play | 5.0322nd of 32 |
| 21st of 325.58 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2711th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | — | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 0–3 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.