Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing15/28, 203 YDS, 2 TD
- Raheem BlackshearRushing8 CAR, 20 YDS
- Adam ThielenReceiving5 REC, 110 YDS, 2 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing27/32, 359 YDS, 5 TD
- Bucky IrvingRushing20 CAR, 113 YDS
- Mike EvansReceiving8 REC, 97 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q413:30Jalen McMillan 16 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–48
- Q35:23J.J. Russell 23 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–41
- Q35:48Payne Durham 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–34
- Q20:50Adam Thielen 40 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–27
- Q21:11Jalen McMillan 10 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–27
- Q28:19Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–20
- Q210:31Chase McLaughlin 34 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q11:13Chase McLaughlin 23 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q18:15Adam Thielen 17 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–7
- Q111:35Mike Evans 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:35Mike Evans 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)CAR 0 – 7 TB · TB 80% → 90% +10TB 80% → 90%+10 pts
- Q18:15Adam Thielen 17 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 7 – 7 TB · CAR 10% → 21% +11CAR 10% → 21%+11 pts
- Q11:13Chase McLaughlin 23 Yd Field GoalCAR 7 – 10 TB · TB 78% → 83% +6TB 78% → 83%+6 pts
- Q210:31Chase McLaughlin 34 Yd Field GoalCAR 7 – 13 TB · TB 83% → 88% +5TB 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q28:19Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)CAR 7 – 20 TB · TB 88% → 96% +8TB 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- TB -9.5
- ML CAR +380 / TB -550
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -11.5
- TB 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- TB: Elo 84.2%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -415
- CAR +415 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 19.0 – 28.5 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1293 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +2 | — | CAR: Bryce Young · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +291 Elo | TB 84.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 82.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 80.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3218.9 | Points scored | 28.55th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3229.9 | Points allowed | 23.522nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−11.0 | Margin | +5.010th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.03 | Yards per play | 6.126th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.77 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5621st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 28th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–3 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 0–3 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.