Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing31/43, 303 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing16 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving5 REC, 69 YDS
Cowboys- Cooper RushPassing26/35, 292 YDS, 1 TD
- Rico DowdleRushing13 CAR, 23 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving7 REC, 105 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:36Ryan Miller 13 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)24–26
- Q30:31Chase McLaughlin 45 Yd Field Goal17–26
- Q36:33Brandon Aubrey 53 Yd Field Goal14–26
- Q20:00Brandon Aubrey 58 Yd Field Goal14–23
- Q20:48Jalen McMillan 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–20
- Q21:45Ezekiel Elliott 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–20
- Q29:15Brandon Aubrey 49 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q211:30Bucky Irving 2 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–10
- Q12:49Jalen Tolbert 10 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–10
- Q19:06Brandon Aubrey 58 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:49Jalen Tolbert 10 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)TB 0 – 10 DAL · DAL 44% → 64% +19DAL 44% → 64%+19 pts
- Q211:30Bucky Irving 2 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 10 DAL · TB 34% → 54% +21TB 34% → 54%+21 pts
- Q21:45Ezekiel Elliott 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)TB 7 – 20 DAL · DAL 59% → 80% +21DAL 59% → 80%+21 pts
- Q20:48Jalen McMillan 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 14 – 20 DAL · TB 20% → 41% +21TB 20% → 41%+21 pts
- Q42:36Ryan Miller 13 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 24 – 26 DAL · TB <1% → 30% +30TB <1% → 30%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- TB -4.5
- ML TB -215 / DAL +180
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -4
- TB 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- TB: Elo 64.3%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -190
- DAL +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 26.0 – 21.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −80 | TB: Baker Mayfield · DAL: Cooper Rush, usually Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +102 Elo | TB 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 63.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.8 | Points scored | 21.321st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3223.3 | Points allowed | 27.130th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+5.5 | Margin | −5.925th of 32 |
| 5th of 326.14 | Yards per play | 5.0425th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.55 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8030th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 7th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 1–630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.