Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing22/27, 288 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing15 CAR, 117 YDS
- Mike EvansReceiving9 REC, 159 YDS, 2 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing21/33, 195 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Gus EdwardsRushing8 CAR, 23 YDS
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving5 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:51Chase McLaughlin 43 Yd Field Goal40–17
- Q47:37Rachaad White 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)37–17
- Q31:36Mike Evans 35 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)30–17
- Q35:06Chase McLaughlin 42 Yd Field Goal23–17
- Q310:23Mike Evans 57 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)20–17
- Q20:33Chase McLaughlin 37 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q27:12Quentin Johnston 13 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–17
- Q28:47Cameron Dicker 41 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q213:41Chase McLaughlin 22 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q16:18Ladd McConkey 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–7
- Q111:14Jalen McMillan 26 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:14Jalen McMillan 26 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 0 LAC · TB 40% → 58% +18TB 40% → 58%+18 pts
- Q16:18Ladd McConkey 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)TB 7 – 7 LAC · LAC 40% → 59% +19LAC 40% → 59%+19 pts
- Q27:12Quentin Johnston 13 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)TB 10 – 17 LAC · LAC 58% → 78% +20LAC 58% → 78%+20 pts
- Q310:23Mike Evans 57 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 20 – 17 LAC · TB 29% → 55% +26TB 29% → 55%+26 pts
- Q31:36Mike Evans 35 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 30 – 17 LAC · TB 72% → 92% +20TB 72% → 92%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3
- ML TB +140 / LAC -165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 60.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAC -150
- TB +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 21.3 – 24.3 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +9 | TB: Baker Mayfield · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +76 Elo | LAC 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 60.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 60.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.9 | Points scored | 21.320th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 15.91st of 32 |
| 12th of 32+4.2 | Margin | +5.410th of 32 |
| 5th of 326.02 | Yards per play | 5.3018th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.62 | Yards allowed per play | 5.197th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 9th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 10–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 8–1 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.