Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing21/30, 213 YDS, 1 TD
- Gus EdwardsRushing10 CAR, 36 YDS, 1 TD
- Joshua PalmerReceiving6 REC, 78 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing24/37, 210 YDS, 1 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing14 CAR, 55 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving5 REC, 45 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Matthew Wright 31 Yd Field Goal17–19
- Q44:35Cameron Dicker 37 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q413:04Matthew Wright 50 Yd Field Goal14–16
- Q33:30Quentin Johnston 4 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–13
- Q37:12Gus Edwards 3 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–13
- Q20:47DeAndre Hopkins 9 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Matthew Wright Kick)0–13
- Q27:47Matthew Wright 33 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q110:05Matthew Wright 47 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:12Gus Edwards 3 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 7 – 13 KC · LAC 5% → 18% +13LAC 5% → 18%+13 pts
- Q33:30Quentin Johnston 4 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 14 – 13 KC · LAC 17% → 44% +27LAC 17% → 44%+27 pts
- Q413:04Matthew Wright 50 Yd Field GoalLAC 14 – 16 KC · KC 54% → 69% +15KC 54% → 69%+15 pts
- Q44:35Cameron Dicker 37 Yd Field GoalLAC 17 – 16 KC · LAC 28% → 54% +26LAC 28% → 54%+26 pts
- Q40:00Matthew Wright 31 Yd Field GoalLAC 17 – 19 KC · KC 0% → 100% +100KC 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- KC -5.5
- ML LAC +200 / KC -240
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -7.5
- KC 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- KC: Elo 74.0%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- KC -217
- LAC +217 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 19.0 – 24.5 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1708 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +3 | LAC: Justin Herbert · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +182 Elo | KC 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 72.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 68.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.7 | Points scored | 24.111th of 32 |
| 1st of 3215.7 | Points allowed | 19.67th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.0 | Margin | +4.511th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.32 | Yards per play | 5.1922nd of 32 |
| 7th of 325.24 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3010th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 32 |
| 8th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 8–1 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 0–3 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.