New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing19/23, 230 YDS, 2 TD
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing11 CAR, 54 YDS
- Rhamondre StevensonReceiving5 REC, 88 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing26/32, 315 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing11 CAR, 30 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving6 REC, 109 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:47Andy Borregales 53 Yd Field Goal33–27
- Q47:06Antonio Gibson 90 Yd Kickoff Return (Andy Borregales Kick)30–27
- Q47:18Malik Washington 74 Yd Punt Return (Riley Patterson Kick)23–27
- Q30:06Drake Maye 6 Yd Rush (Rhamondre Stevenson Run for Two-Point Conversion)23–20
- Q33:37Riley Patterson 44 Yd Field Goal15–20
- Q310:41Riley Patterson 40 Yd Field Goal15–17
- Q20:33De'Von Achane 29 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)15–14
- Q21:56Andy Borregales 22 Yd Field Goal15–7
- Q211:19Jaylen Waddle 18 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)12–7
- Q10:49Kayshon Boutte 16 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales PAT Failed)12–0
- Q19:29Mack Hollins 8 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales PAT Failed)6–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:19Jaylen Waddle 18 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)NE 12 – 7 MIA · MIA 22% → 40% +18MIA 22% → 40%+18 pts
- Q20:33De'Von Achane 29 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)NE 15 – 14 MIA · MIA 28% → 51% +23MIA 28% → 51%+23 pts
- Q30:06Drake Maye 6 Yd Rush (Rhamondre Stevenson Run for Two-Point Conversion)NE 23 – 20 MIA · NE 24% → 62% +38NE 24% → 62%+38 pts
- Q47:18Malik Washington 74 Yd Punt Return (Riley Patterson Kick)NE 23 – 27 MIA · MIA 31% → 78% +47MIA 31% → 78%+47 pts
- Q47:06Antonio Gibson 90 Yd Kickoff Return (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 30 – 27 MIA · NE 22% → 69% +47NE 22% → 69%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML NE +115 / MIA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5
- MIA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 67.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -128
- NE +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 20.0 – 22.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +15 | +23 | NE: Drake Maye · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +125 Elo | MIA 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 66.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3217.0 | Points scored | 20.322nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.5 | Points allowed | 21.410th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−7.5 | Margin | −1.117th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.83 | Yards per play | 5.1122nd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.289th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–6 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
| 20th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 147929th of 32 |
| 29th of 321370 | Elo rating | 145221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  NE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 0–4 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.