San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing26/40, 313 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Brock PurdyRushing4 CAR, 26 YDS
- George KittleReceiving8 REC, 106 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing22/34, 215 YDS, 1 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing17 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- De'Von AchaneReceiving6 REC, 70 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:36De'Von Achane 50 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)17–29
- Q42:10Jason Sanders 48 Yd Field Goal17–22
- Q412:02Eric Saubert 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)17–19
- Q31:08Jason Sanders 33 Yd Field Goal10–19
- Q310:57Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q20:47Jake Moody 21 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q23:20Tyreek Hill 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)7–13
- Q29:40Jason Sanders 38 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q214:14Deebo Samuel Sr. 16 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–3
- Q13:30Jason Sanders 44 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:14Deebo Samuel Sr. 16 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 3 MIA · SF 44% → 64% +20SF 44% → 64%+20 pts
- Q23:20Tyreek Hill 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)SF 7 – 13 MIA · MIA 44% → 67% +23MIA 44% → 67%+23 pts
- Q310:57Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field GoalSF 10 – 16 MIA · MIA 59% → 70% +11MIA 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q412:02Eric Saubert 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 17 – 19 MIA · SF 11% → 40% +29SF 11% → 40%+29 pts
- Q42:10Jason Sanders 48 Yd Field GoalSF 17 – 22 MIA · MIA 74% → 95% +21MIA 74% → 95%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- SF -1.5
- ML SF -125 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -0.5
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- SF: Elo 51.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -113
- MIA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 23.0 – 21.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +17 | SF: Brock Purdy · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +9 Elo | SF 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 19.723rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.9 | Points allowed | 22.311th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −2.621st of 32 |
| 5th of 326.14 | Yards per play | 5.0824th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3110th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–8 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.