New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing27/39, 339 YDS, 1 TD
- Braelon AllenRushing11 CAR, 43 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving7 REC, 114 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing33/47, 331 YDS, 2 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing14 CAR, 24 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving10 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT6:05Jonnu Smith 10 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa26–32
- Q40:07Jason Sanders 52 Yd Field Goal26–26
- Q40:52Anders Carlson 42 Yd Field Goal26–23
- Q49:04Tyreek Hill 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Tua Tagovailoa Pass to Jaylen Waddle for Two-Point Conversion)23–23
- Q31:02Anders Carlson 40 Yd Field Goal23–15
- Q311:20Davante Adams 3 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson Kick)20–15
- Q20:02Jason Sanders 57 Yd Field Goal13–15
- Q20:49Anders Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal13–12
- Q24:56Jason Sanders 24 Yd Field Goal10–12
- Q211:56Isaiah Davis 17 Yd Rush (Anders Carlson Kick)10–9
- Q214:53Jason Sanders 39 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q15:19Anders Carlson 28 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q110:24De'Von Achane 2 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders PAT Failed)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:20Davante Adams 3 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson Kick)NYJ 20 – 15 MIA · NYJ 29% → 54% +25NYJ 29% → 54%+25 pts
- Q49:04Tyreek Hill 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Tua Tagovailoa Pass to Jaylen Waddle for Two-Point Conversion)NYJ 23 – 23 MIA · MIA 14% → 59% +45MIA 14% → 59%+45 pts
- Q40:52Anders Carlson 42 Yd Field GoalNYJ 26 – 23 MIA · NYJ 47% → 93% +46NYJ 47% → 93%+46 pts
- Q40:07Jason Sanders 52 Yd Field GoalNYJ 26 – 26 MIA · MIA <1% → 51% +51MIA <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT6:05Jonnu Smith 10 Yd pass from Tua TagovailoaNYJ 26 – 32 MIA · MIA 57% → 91% +34MIA 57% → 91%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -6.5
- ML NYJ +240 / MIA -290
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5.5
- MIA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 69.3%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -251
- NYJ +251 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 19.5 – 26.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +12 | +19 | NYJ: Aaron Rodgers · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +141 Elo | MIA 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 67.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 71.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3218.8 | Points scored | 19.324th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 22.214th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−3.6 | Margin | −2.822nd of 32 |
| 27th of 324.92 | Yards per play | 5.1523rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.85 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3411th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.