Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing37/46, 365 YDS, 2 TD
- Raheem MostertRushing5 CAR, 19 YDS
- Jonnu SmithReceiving10 REC, 113 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing21/28, 274 YDS, 2 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing19 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- Tucker KraftReceiving6 REC, 78 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:04Tyreek Hill 12 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–30
- Q45:02Brandon McManus 33 Yd Field Goal11–30
- Q32:43De'Von Achane 14 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Tua Tagovailoa Pass to Jaylen Waddle for Two-Point Conversion)11–27
- Q37:42Brandon McManus 24 Yd Field Goal3–27
- Q20:00Brandon McManus 46 Yd Field Goal3–24
- Q21:36Jayden Reed 12 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)3–21
- Q28:44Jason Sanders 33 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q10:55Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)0–14
- Q112:00Jayden Reed 3 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:00Jayden Reed 3 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)MIA 0 – 7 GB · GB 63% → 78% +15GB 63% → 78%+15 pts
- Q10:55Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)MIA 0 – 14 GB · GB 79% → 90% +12GB 79% → 90%+12 pts
- Q28:44Jason Sanders 33 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 14 GB · MIA 9% → 13% +4MIA 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q21:36Jayden Reed 12 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)MIA 3 – 21 GB · GB 89% → 96% +8GB 89% → 96%+8 pts
- Q32:43De'Von Achane 14 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Tua Tagovailoa Pass to Jaylen Waddle for Two-Point Conversion)MIA 11 – 27 GB · MIA <1% → 2% +2MIA <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- GB -3.5
- ML MIA +160 / GB -190
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -5
- GB 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- GB: Elo 67.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- GB -173
- MIA +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 22.0 – 25.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1618 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +20 | +8 | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +130 Elo | GB 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 65.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 63.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3219.5 | Points scored | 26.28th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 20.310th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.9 | Margin | +5.97th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.09 | Yards per play | 6.184th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3314th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.