San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brandon AllenPassing17/29, 199 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing11 CAR, 31 YDS
- George KittleReceiving6 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Packers- Jordan LovePassing13/23, 163 YDS, 2 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing26 CAR, 106 YDS, 3 TD
- Romeo DoubsReceiving3 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:14Malik Heath 3 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)10–38
- Q410:59Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)10–31
- Q32:12Jake Moody 48 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q34:28Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)7–24
- Q21:02George Kittle 3 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Jake Moody Kick)7–17
- Q26:33Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)0–17
- Q10:11Brandon McManus 51 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q17:35Tucker Kraft 11 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:35Tucker Kraft 11 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)SF 0 – 7 GB · GB 73% → 86% +13GB 73% → 86%+13 pts
- Q10:11Brandon McManus 51 Yd Field GoalSF 0 – 10 GB · GB 86% → 90% +4GB 86% → 90%+4 pts
- Q26:33Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)SF 0 – 17 GB · GB 90% → 97% +6GB 90% → 97%+6 pts
- Q21:02George Kittle 3 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 17 GB · SF 3% → 9% +6SF 3% → 9%+6 pts
- Q34:28Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)SF 7 – 24 GB · GB 93% → 99% +6GB 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- GB -6.5
- ML SF +260 / GB -320
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -11
- GB 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.2 pts
- GB: Elo 82.5%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- GB -286
- SF +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 19.0 – 25.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −196 | +8 | SF: Brandon Allen, usually Brock Purdy · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +269 Elo | GB 82.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 81.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 74.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 25.08th of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.2 | Points allowed | 21.310th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.8 | Margin | +3.711th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.39 | Yards per play | 6.323rd of 32 |
| 6th of 325.09 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3414th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | — | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–0 GB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.