Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing17/23, 134 YDS, 2 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing14 CAR, 38 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving6 REC, 49 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing20/25, 325 YDS, 2 TD
- Isaac GuerendoRushing15 CAR, 78 YDS, 2 TD
- George KittleReceiving6 REC, 151 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:15Patrick Taylor Jr. 3 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)13–38
- Q411:48Rome Odunze 14 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)13–31
- Q414:57Isaac Guerendo 4 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)6–31
- Q35:56Rome Odunze 4 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–24
- Q21:50Jake Moody 23 Yd Field Goal0–24
- Q27:41Jauan Jennings 16 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)0–21
- Q11:39Isaac Guerendo 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)0–14
- Q112:20Jauan Jennings 7 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:20Jauan Jennings 7 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)CHI 0 – 7 SF · SF 60% → 76% +16SF 60% → 76%+16 pts
- Q11:39Isaac Guerendo 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)CHI 0 – 14 SF · SF 76% → 89% +12SF 76% → 89%+12 pts
- Q27:41Jauan Jennings 16 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)CHI 0 – 21 SF · SF 90% → 97% +6SF 90% → 97%+6 pts
- Q21:50Jake Moody 23 Yd Field GoalCHI 0 – 24 SF · SF 98% → 99% +1SF 98% → 99%+1 pts
- Q35:56Rome Odunze 4 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CHI 6 – 24 SF · CHI <1% → 2% +2CHI <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SF -3.5
- ML CHI +135 / SF -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -6.5
- SF 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.4 pts
- SF: Elo 72.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SF -149
- CHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 20.0 – 23.5 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −10 | +11 | CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +166 Elo | SF 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 71.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3220.1 | Points scored | 22.515th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 24.624th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −2.119th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.63 | Yards per play | 6.223rd of 32 |
| 28th of 325.75 | Yards allowed per play | 5.196th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–5 | Road vs home | 3–315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.