Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing20/39, 256 YDS, 3 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing11 CAR, 39 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving8 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
Lions- Jared GoffPassing21/34, 221 YDS, 2 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing21 CAR, 88 YDS
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving5 REC, 73 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:36DJ Moore 31 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)20–23
- Q413:40Keenan Allen 9 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–23
- Q32:43Sam LaPorta 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–23
- Q39:47Keenan Allen 31 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)7–16
- Q23:11Jake Bates 48 Yd Field Goal0–16
- Q27:15Jake Bates 36 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q214:55Sam LaPorta 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)0–10
- Q17:06Jake Bates 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:06Jake Bates 30 Yd Field GoalCHI 0 – 3 DET · DET 79% → 85% +5DET 79% → 85%+5 pts
- Q214:55Sam LaPorta 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)CHI 0 – 10 DET · DET 84% → 93% +10DET 84% → 93%+10 pts
- Q39:47Keenan Allen 31 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 16 DET · CHI 2% → 7% +6CHI 2% → 7%+6 pts
- Q32:43Sam LaPorta 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)CHI 7 – 23 DET · DET 94% → >99% +5DET 94% → >99%+5 pts
- Q45:36DJ Moore 31 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 20 – 23 DET · CHI <1% → 19% +18CHI <1% → 19%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- DET -10
- ML CHI +380 / DET -550
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -14
- DET 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.3 pts
- DET: Elo 88.6%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -426
- CHI +426 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 19.3 – 29.3 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1741 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −15 | — | CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +356 Elo | DET 88.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 80.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 86.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 81.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.1 | Points scored | 32.71st of 32 |
| 8th of 3219.7 | Points allowed | 16.62nd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +16.11st of 32 |
| 30th of 324.59 | Yards per play | 6.233rd of 32 |
| 25th of 325.74 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3414th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 31st of 320–4 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 8–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.