San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing11/18, 94 YDS
- Jordan MasonRushing13 CAR, 78 YDS
- Jauan JenningsReceiving3 REC, 56 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing13/17, 148 YDS, 2 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing14 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- Dawson KnoxReceiving2 REC, 56 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q412:31Josh Allen 8 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)10–35
- Q32:54Isaac Guerendo 15 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)10–28
- Q35:58Amari Cooper pass from Josh Allen, lateral to Josh Allen for 7 Yd Touchdown (Tyler Bass Kick)3–28
- Q20:41Mack Hollins 7 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)3–21
- Q28:38James Cook 65 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)3–14
- Q10:03Ray Davis 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)3–7
- Q17:41Jake Moody 33 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:41Jake Moody 33 Yd Field GoalSF 3 – 0 BUF · SF 30% → 37% +7SF 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q10:03Ray Davis 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)SF 3 – 7 BUF · BUF 61% → 78% +17BUF 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q28:38James Cook 65 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)SF 3 – 14 BUF · BUF 78% → 91% +13BUF 78% → 91%+13 pts
- Q20:41Mack Hollins 7 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)SF 3 – 21 BUF · BUF 92% → 98% +6BUF 92% → 98%+6 pts
- Q35:58Amari Cooper pass from Josh Allen, lateral to Josh Allen for 7 Yd Touchdown (Tyler Bass Kick)SF 3 – 28 BUF · BUF 99% → >99% +1BUF 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -6.5
- ML SF +240 / BUF -290
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -7
- BUF 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 72.6%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -254
- SF +254 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 19.0 – 25.5 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1709 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +12 | — | SF: Brock Purdy · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +169 Elo | BUF 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 68.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 71.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.6 | Points scored | 29.13rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3223.6 | Points allowed | 19.57th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +9.62nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.30 | Yards per play | 5.7410th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.06 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4016th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.