Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing29/40, 196 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing12 CAR, 41 YDS
- Malik WashingtonReceiving5 REC, 52 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing18/26, 131 YDS, 2 TD
- Dare OgunbowaleRushing1 CAR, 35 YDS
- Joe MixonReceiving5 REC, 33 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q34:30Jonnu Smith 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders PAT Failed)12–20
- Q311:02Nico Collins 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)6–20
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 23 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q21:57Jason Sanders 36 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q26:45Nico Collins 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)3–10
- Q211:35Jason Sanders 55 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:09Ka'imi Fairbairn 44 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:35Jason Sanders 55 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 3 HOU · MIA 35% → 44% +9MIA 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q26:45Nico Collins 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)MIA 3 – 10 HOU · HOU 56% → 76% +20HOU 56% → 76%+20 pts
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 23 Yd Field GoalMIA 6 – 13 HOU · HOU 69% → 78% +9HOU 69% → 78%+9 pts
- Q311:02Nico Collins 6 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)MIA 6 – 20 HOU · HOU 79% → 93% +14HOU 79% → 93%+14 pts
- Q34:30Jonnu Smith 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders PAT Failed)MIA 12 – 20 HOU · MIA 5% → 16% +11MIA 5% → 16%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML MIA +130 / HOU -150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1.5
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -137
- MIA +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 22.0 – 24.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +19 | +6 | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +32 Elo | HOU 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3220.3 | Points scored | 23.711th of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.5 | Points allowed | 22.212th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.2 | Margin | +1.513th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.19 | Yards per play | 5.2020th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.036th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 3–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.