Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing22/34, 242 YDS, 1 TD
- Joe MixonRushing20 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving8 REC, 119 YDS
Jaguars- Mac JonesPassing20/32, 235 YDS, 2 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing13 CAR, 46 YDS
- Parker WashingtonReceiving6 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:31Brian Thomas Jr. 6 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Mac Jones Pass to Parker Washington for Two-Point Conversion)23–20
- Q47:49Parker Washington 22 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–12
- Q412:11Dalton Schultz 22 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)23–6
- Q31:16Ka'imi Fairbairn 28 Yd Field Goal16–6
- Q38:04Joe Mixon 7 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)13–6
- Q310:06Cam Little 30 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q20:08Cam Little 33 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q26:26Ka'imi Fairbairn 30 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q214:51Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:51Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field GoalHOU 3 – 0 JAX · HOU 59% → 67% +8HOU 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q20:08Cam Little 33 Yd Field GoalHOU 6 – 3 JAX · JAX 23% → 32% +9JAX 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q310:06Cam Little 30 Yd Field GoalHOU 6 – 6 JAX · JAX 32% → 43% +11JAX 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q38:04Joe Mixon 7 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 13 – 6 JAX · HOU 57% → 81% +24HOU 57% → 81%+24 pts
- Q43:31Brian Thomas Jr. 6 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Mac Jones Pass to Parker Washington for Two-Point Conversion)HOU 23 – 20 JAX · JAX <1% → 20% +20JAX <1% → 20%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML HOU -170 / JAX +145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2.5
- HOU 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 59.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -154
- JAX +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 24.0 – 20.5 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +13 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +66 Elo | HOU 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 18.925th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 28.731st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.4 | Margin | −9.831st of 32 |
| 19th of 325.19 | Yards per play | 5.3018th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.98 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1532nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 15th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 1–325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 JAX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.