Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing16/27, 160 YDS
- Kyren WilliamsRushing29 CAR, 108 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving7 REC, 97 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing14/31, 142 YDS, 1 INT
- Isaac GuerendoRushing16 CAR, 57 YDS
- George KittleReceiving4 REC, 61 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:18Joshua Karty 29 Yd Field Goal12–6
- Q49:28Joshua Karty 27 Yd Field Goal9–6
- Q413:38Joshua Karty 23 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q38:23Jake Moody 47 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q21:05Joshua Karty 48 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:01Jake Moody 53 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:01Jake Moody 53 Yd Field GoalLAR 0 – 3 SF · SF 59% → 66% +7SF 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q21:05Joshua Karty 48 Yd Field GoalLAR 3 – 3 SF · LAR 34% → 44% +10LAR 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q38:23Jake Moody 47 Yd Field GoalLAR 3 – 6 SF · SF 56% → 67% +12SF 56% → 67%+12 pts
- Q413:38Joshua Karty 23 Yd Field GoalLAR 6 – 6 SF · LAR 31% → 46% +15LAR 31% → 46%+15 pts
- Q49:28Joshua Karty 27 Yd Field GoalLAR 9 – 6 SF · LAR 46% → 65% +19LAR 46% → 65%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SF -2.5
- ML LAR +135 / SF -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -3
- SF 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- SF: Elo 60.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SF -144
- LAR +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 23.0 – 25.5 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +11 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +75 Elo | SF 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 59.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.9 | Points scored | 23.711th of 32 |
| 24th of 3225.5 | Points allowed | 23.721st of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.50 | Yards per play | 6.322nd of 32 |
| 28th of 325.85 | Yards allowed per play | 5.056th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 16th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–6 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 2–1 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.