Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing22/37, 342 YDS, 3 TD
- Josh AllenRushing10 CAR, 82 YDS, 3 TD
- Khalil ShakirReceiving5 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing23/30, 320 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing29 CAR, 87 YDS, 2 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving12 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:00Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)42–44
- Q41:54Puka Nacua 19 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty PAT failed)35–44
- Q48:49Mack Hollins 21 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)35–38
- Q414:27Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)28–38
- Q30:18Cooper Kupp 17 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)21–38
- Q33:54Khalil Shakir 51 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)21–31
- Q38:26Kyren Williams 7 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)14–31
- Q22:36Puka Nacua 4 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)14–24
- Q210:23Ty Johnson 41 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)14–17
- Q212:29Hunter Long 22 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Joshua Karty Kick)7–17
- Q213:37Joshua Karty 22 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q13:22Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–7
- Q18:26Kyren Williams 3 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:22Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 7 – 7 LAR · BUF 42% → 61% +19BUF 42% → 61%+19 pts
- Q212:29Hunter Long 22 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Joshua Karty Kick)BUF 7 – 17 LAR · LAR 48% → 68% +20LAR 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q210:23Ty Johnson 41 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 14 – 17 LAR · BUF 31% → 51% +21BUF 31% → 51%+21 pts
- Q22:36Puka Nacua 4 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)BUF 14 – 24 LAR · LAR 51% → 73% +22LAR 51% → 73%+22 pts
- Q48:49Mack Hollins 21 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 35 – 38 LAR · BUF 6% → 36% +29BUF 6% → 36%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -3.5
- ML BUF -175 / LAR +150
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -7
- BUF 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 73.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -166
- LAR +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 27.0 – 23.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1730 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +6 | BUF: Josh Allen · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +180 Elo | BUF 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 72.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 62.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3229.6 | Points scored | 21.220th of 32 |
| 7th of 3218.7 | Points allowed | 24.222nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+10.9 | Margin | −3.022nd of 32 |
| 9th of 325.81 | Yards per play | 5.4115th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6826th of 32 |
| 4th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 8th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 3–315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.