Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing24/34, 362 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing19 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- Brock BowersReceiving5 REC, 103 YDS
Patriots- Drake MayePassing30/46, 287 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing5 CAR, 27 YDS
- Kayshon BoutteReceiving6 REC, 103 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:19Andy Borregales 44 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q46:46Daniel Carlson 40 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q30:52Daniel Carlson 51 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q39:39Ashton Jeanty 3 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)14–10
- Q21:57Andy Borregales 35 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q11:02DeMario Douglas 2 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–7
- Q112:17Tre Tucker 26 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:17Tre Tucker 26 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 0 NE · LV 44% → 61% +18LV 44% → 61%+18 pts
- Q11:02DeMario Douglas 2 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)LV 7 – 7 NE · NE 36% → 56% +20NE 36% → 56%+20 pts
- Q21:57Andy Borregales 35 Yd Field GoalLV 7 – 10 NE · NE 55% → 65% +10NE 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q39:39Ashton Jeanty 3 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 14 – 10 NE · LV 34% → 61% +27LV 34% → 61%+27 pts
- Q30:52Daniel Carlson 51 Yd Field GoalLV 17 – 10 NE · LV 66% → 78% +12LV 66% → 78%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- NE -2.5
- ML LV +125 / NE -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- NE 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- NE: Elo 50.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NE -130
- LV +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 21.0 – 23.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1396 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +69 | +15 | LV: Geno Smith, usually Aidan O'Connell · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV 0 Elo | LV 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 51.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 56.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3218.2 | Points scored | 17.030th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.5 | Points allowed | 24.522nd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−7.4 | Margin | −7.528th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.84 | Yards per play | 4.8329th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4619th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 28th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 2–626th of 32 |
| 5th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 32 |
| 29th of 321379 | Elo rating | 139627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  LV |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 1–0 NE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.