Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing20/35, 242 YDS, 2 TD
- Ameer AbdullahRushing20 CAR, 115 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving7 REC, 77 YDS
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing20/36, 218 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Spencer RattlerRushing3 CAR, 46 YDS
- Juwan JohnsonReceiving6 REC, 66 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:20Tre Tucker 18 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson PAT blocked)25–10
- Q414:14Daniel Carlson 25 Yd Field Goal19–10
- Q37:57Daniel Carlson 54 Yd Field Goal16–10
- Q20:00Blake Grupe 34 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q20:57Jakobi Meyers 3 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)13–7
- Q210:19Daniel Carlson 39 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q214:52Foster Moreau 30 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)3–7
- Q15:49Daniel Carlson 31 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:52Foster Moreau 30 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)LV 3 – 7 NO · NO 39% → 59% +20NO 39% → 59%+20 pts
- Q20:57Jakobi Meyers 3 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 13 – 7 NO · LV 49% → 72% +23LV 49% → 72%+23 pts
- Q20:00Blake Grupe 34 Yd Field GoalLV 13 – 10 NO · NO 28% → 37% +10NO 28% → 37%+10 pts
- Q37:57Daniel Carlson 54 Yd Field GoalLV 16 – 10 NO · LV 64% → 75% +11LV 64% → 75%+11 pts
- Q414:14Daniel Carlson 25 Yd Field GoalLV 19 – 10 NO · LV 79% → 89% +9LV 79% → 89%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raiders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- LV -2.5
- ML LV -130 / NO +110
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -3
- LV 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.5 pts
- LV: Elo 39.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LV -114
- NO +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 20.0 – 17.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1292 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | −108 | LV: Aidan O'Connell · NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +72 Elo | NO 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 57.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LV 53.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3217.6 | Points scored | 20.622nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.0 | Points allowed | 23.118th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−8.4 | Margin | −2.521st of 32 |
| 29th of 324.77 | Yards per play | 5.3317th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.30 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7929th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 30th of 321–7 | Road vs home | 3–520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.