New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing15/30, 153 YDS, 1 INT
- Spencer RattlerRushing5 CAR, 28 YDS
- Foster MoreauReceiving2 REC, 33 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing16/28, 182 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing13 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- Jayden ReedReceiving3 REC, 76 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:41Emanuel Wilson 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)0–34
- Q47:13Brandon McManus 46 Yd Field Goal0–27
- Q37:03Brandon McManus 55 Yd Field Goal0–24
- Q26:28Chris Brooks 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)0–21
- Q211:43Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)0–14
- Q18:41Dontayvion Wicks 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:41Dontayvion Wicks 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)NO 0 – 7 GB · GB 87% → 94% +8GB 87% → 94%+8 pts
- Q211:43Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)NO 0 – 14 GB · GB 93% → 98% +4GB 93% → 98%+4 pts
- Q26:28Chris Brooks 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)NO 0 – 21 GB · GB 98% → >99% +2GB 98% → >99%+2 pts
- Q37:03Brandon McManus 55 Yd Field GoalNO 0 – 24 GB · GB >99% → >99% +0GB >99% → >99%+0 pts
- Q47:13Brandon McManus 46 Yd Field GoalNO 0 – 27 GB · GB >99% → >99% +0GB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- GB -14.5
- ML NO +700 / GB -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -14.5
- GB 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- GB: Elo 88.7%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- GB -742
- NO +742 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 14.5 – 29.0 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1659 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −112 | +8 | NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +358 Elo | GB 88.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 86.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 88.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 88.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 27.17th of 32 |
| 12th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 20.58th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +6.66th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.43 | Yards per play | 6.262nd of 32 |
| 29th of 325.78 | Yards allowed per play | 5.248th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–25th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–8 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 0–1 GB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.