Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing20/27, 229 YDS, 2 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing26 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving3 REC, 56 YDS
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing15/19, 149 YDS, 1 INT
- Zach CharbonnetRushing8 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving10 REC, 83 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:59Romeo Doubs 22 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)30–13
- Q411:16Zach Charbonnet 24 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)23–13
- Q31:36Brandon McManus 23 Yd Field Goal23–6
- Q36:20Jason Myers 45 Yd Field Goal20–6
- Q20:00Brandon McManus 21 Yd Field Goal20–3
- Q29:21Brandon McManus 39 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q212:59Jason Myers 48 Yd Field Goal14–3
- Q11:54Romeo Doubs 13 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)14–0
- Q19:19Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:19Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 7 – 0 SEA · GB 59% → 76% +16GB 59% → 76%+16 pts
- Q11:54Romeo Doubs 13 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 14 – 0 SEA · GB 76% → 89% +13GB 76% → 89%+13 pts
- Q212:59Jason Myers 48 Yd Field GoalGB 14 – 3 SEA · SEA 11% → 15% +5SEA 11% → 15%+5 pts
- Q29:21Brandon McManus 39 Yd Field GoalGB 17 – 3 SEA · GB 85% → 90% +5GB 85% → 90%+5 pts
- Q411:16Zach Charbonnet 24 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)GB 23 – 13 SEA · SEA <1% → 6% +5SEA <1% → 6%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- GB -2.5
- ML GB -165 / SEA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -1.5
- GB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- GB: Elo 55.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- GB -147
- SEA +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 25.5 – 23.0 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1628 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | +5 | GB: Jordan Love · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +39 Elo | GB 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 56.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 59.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.8 | Points scored | 23.214th of 32 |
| 8th of 3221.1 | Points allowed | 21.811th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+5.8 | Margin | +1.514th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.28 | Yards per play | 5.5313th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.35 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3815th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 6th of 324–1 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.