Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing12/20, 206 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing18 CAR, 66 YDS, 3 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving4 REC, 114 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing32/41, 283 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- David MontgomeryRushing14 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving5 REC, 80 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Jake Bates 35 Yd Field Goal31–34
- Q43:38Brandon McManus 32 Yd Field Goal31–31
- Q48:39Tim Patrick 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)28–31
- Q414:20Josh Jacobs 4 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)28–24
- Q35:02Tim Patrick 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)21–24
- Q311:15Josh Jacobs 6 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)21–17
- Q313:15Tucker Kraft 12 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)14–17
- Q20:11Jahmyr Gibbs 2 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–17
- Q25:35Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)7–10
- Q213:01Jake Bates 43 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q19:41David Montgomery 3 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:02Tim Patrick 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)GB 21 – 24 DET · DET 40% → 70% +29DET 40% → 70%+29 pts
- Q414:20Josh Jacobs 4 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 28 – 24 DET · GB 29% → 64% +35GB 29% → 64%+35 pts
- Q48:39Tim Patrick 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)GB 28 – 31 DET · DET 30% → 73% +44DET 30% → 73%+44 pts
- Q43:38Brandon McManus 32 Yd Field GoalGB 31 – 31 DET · GB 20% → 47% +27GB 20% → 47%+27 pts
- Q40:00Jake Bates 35 Yd Field GoalGB 31 – 34 DET · DET 55% → 100% +45DET 55% → 100%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML GB +155 / DET -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- DET: Elo 68.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -169
- GB +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 25.0 – 28.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 53.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1745 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | — | GB: Jordan Love · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +135 Elo | DET 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 67.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.5 | Points scored | 31.91st of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 16.92nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+6.5 | Margin | +15.01st of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.26 | Yards per play | 6.204th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3211th of 32 |
| 4th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 32 |
| 1st of 324–0 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–5 | 8–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 1–2 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.