Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Mac JonesPassing25/39, 247 YDS, 1 TD
- Tank BigsbyRushing12 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving9 REC, 132 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing24/38, 257 YDS
- Ameer AbdullahRushing7 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- Brock BowersReceiving11 REC, 99 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:26Ameer Abdullah 7 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–19
- Q30:54Brian Thomas Jr. 62 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Cam Little Kick)14–13
- Q23:56Daniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q210:28Daniel Carlson 49 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q214:05Alexander Mattison 1 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–7
- Q11:32Tank Bigsby 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:32Tank Bigsby 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)JAX 7 – 0 LV · JAX 46% → 65% +20JAX 46% → 65%+20 pts
- Q214:05Alexander Mattison 1 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)JAX 7 – 7 LV · LV 34% → 54% +20LV 34% → 54%+20 pts
- Q23:56Daniel Carlson 37 Yd Field GoalJAX 7 – 13 LV · LV 63% → 72% +9LV 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q30:54Brian Thomas Jr. 62 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Cam Little Kick)JAX 14 – 13 LV · JAX 21% → 52% +31JAX 21% → 52%+31 pts
- Q411:26Ameer Abdullah 7 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)JAX 14 – 19 LV · LV 46% → 78% +32LV 46% → 78%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raiders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- LV -2.5
- ML JAX +115 / LV -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LV 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LV: Elo 50.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LV -122
- JAX +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 19.5 – 22.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1270 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −68 | +10 | JAX: Mac Jones, usually Trevor Lawrence · LV: Aidan O'Connell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX 0 Elo | JAX 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 50.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LV 54.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3218.8 | Points scored | 17.529th of 32 |
| 29th of 3226.9 | Points allowed | 26.928th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−8.1 | Margin | −9.430th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.32 | Yards per play | 4.7829th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.05 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3212th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 0–1031st of 32 |
| 28th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 1–527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–5 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.