New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing16/30, 289 YDS, 3 TD
- Aaron RodgersRushing6 CAR, 45 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving9 REC, 198 YDS, 2 TD
Jaguars- Mac JonesPassing31/46, 294 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing14 CAR, 65 YDS
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving10 REC, 105 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:05Breece Hall 1 Yd Rush (Anders Carlson Kick)32–25
- Q41:51Cam Little 43 Yd Field Goal25–25
- Q43:24Davante Adams 71 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers Pass to Davante Adams for Two-Point Conversion)25–22
- Q410:58Brian Thomas Jr. 19 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–22
- Q34:33Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson Kick)17–16
- Q38:05Cam Little 43 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q310:28Anders Carlson 43 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q20:00Cam Little 23 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q22:41Cam Little 28 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q15:01Garrett Wilson 22 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson Kick)7–7
- Q18:37Brian Thomas Jr. 3 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Cam Little Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:33Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson Kick)NYJ 17 – 16 JAX · NYJ 31% → 61% +30NYJ 31% → 61%+30 pts
- Q410:58Brian Thomas Jr. 19 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)NYJ 17 – 22 JAX · JAX 39% → 73% +34JAX 39% → 73%+34 pts
- Q43:24Davante Adams 71 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers Pass to Davante Adams for Two-Point Conversion)NYJ 25 – 22 JAX · NYJ 11% → 81% +70NYJ 11% → 81%+70 pts
- Q41:51Cam Little 43 Yd Field GoalNYJ 25 – 25 JAX · JAX 13% → 48% +35JAX 13% → 48%+35 pts
- Q41:05Breece Hall 1 Yd Rush (Anders Carlson Kick)NYJ 32 – 25 JAX · NYJ 52% → >99% +48NYJ 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -3.5
- ML NYJ -185 / JAX +155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -1
- NYJ 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- NYJ: Elo 53.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -161
- JAX +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 22.5 – 19.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +15 | −76 | NYJ: Aaron Rodgers · JAX: Mac Jones, usually Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +27 Elo | NYJ 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 61.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3219.3 | Points scored | 18.326th of 32 |
| 20th of 3223.1 | Points allowed | 26.528th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−3.8 | Margin | −8.229th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.04 | Yards per play | 5.3018th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.92 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9732nd of 32 |
| 30th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 1–425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.